According to Nate Cohn Chief political analyst new post-debate Times/Siena polls in the battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as in Ohio and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, continue to show that this is an extremely close election. Imagine, for a moment, that the latest Times/Siena polls in every key state were right on the mark. They won’t be, of course, but here’s the result you would get in the Electoral College: Harris 270, Trump 268. In terms of the electoral count, it would be the closest modern U.S. presidential election.
Both Harris and Trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let’s zoom in on several key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020.
Polls will change between now and Election Day, and they can’t be expected to exactly match the final results. But if Harris won every state where she currently leads in our polling averages, she would reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Trump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states — or if the polls are already underestimating him. A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
State averages and past results
States are shown in order of the closest current polling averages.
Swing states
| Election Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Leader | 2020 | 2016 | |
|
16 E.V. |
Trump <1 | R +1 | R +4 |
|
6 E.V. |
Harris +1 | D +2 | D +2 |
|
16 E.V. |
Trump +1 | D <1 | R +5 |
|
19 E.V. |
Harris +1 | D +1 | R +1 |
|
15 E.V. |
Harris +2 | D +3 | R <1 |
|
10 E.V. |
Harris +2 | D +1 | R +1 |
|
11 E.V. |
Trump +2 | D <1 | R +4 |
Other states
| Election Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Leader | 2020 | 2016 | |
|
30 E.V. |
Trump +4 | R +3 | R +1 |
|
40 E.V. |
Trump +6 | R +6 | R +9 |
|
10 E.V. |
Harris +6 | D +7 | D +2 |
|
13 E.V. |
Harris +6 | D +10 | D +5 |
|
N.H.
4 E.V. |
Harris +8 | D +7 | D <1 |
|
Neb. C.D. 2
1 E.V. |
Harris +8 | D +6 | R +2 |
|
17 E.V. |
Trump +8 | R +8 | R +8 |
|
5 E.V. |
Harris +8 | D +11 | D +8 |
How wrong the polls might be?
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
According to Ruth Igielnik – In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
The latest Harris vs. Trump polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more and are shown with a diamond.
| Pollster | Sponsor | State | Margin | Harris | Trump | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New poll from
The New York Times/Siena College
conducted Sept. 20 to 25 |
Wisconsin | Harris +2 | 49% | 47% | |||
| New poll from
The New York Times/Siena College
conducted Sept. 20 to 25 |
Ohio | Trump +6 | 44% | 50% | |||
| New poll from
The New York Times/Siena College
conducted Sept. 20 to 25 |
Michigan | Harris +1 | 48% | 47% | |||
| poll from
Outward Intelligence
conducted Sept. 21 to 25 |
U.S. | Harris +6 | 53% | 47% | |||
| New poll from
SurveyUSA
conducted Sept. 22 to 25 |
KAAL-TV, KSTP-TV Minneapolis, WDIV-TV | Minnesota | Harris +6 | 50% | 44% | ||
| New poll from
The New York Times/Siena College
conducted Sept. 23 to 25 |
Nebraska C.D. 2 | Harris +9 | 52% | 43% | |||
| New poll from
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
conducted Sept. 24 to 25 |
U.S. | Harris +3 | 47% | 44% | |||
| poll from
ActiVote
conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 24 |
Pennsylvania | Harris +3 | 52% | 48% | |||
| poll from
Morning Consult
conducted Sept. 18 to 24 |
Bloomberg | Arizona | Harris +3 | 50% | 47% | ||
| poll from
Morning Consult
conducted Sept. 18 to 24 |
Bloomberg | Georgia | Even | 49% | 49% |